New Cars: What’s the Impact of EVs and AVs?

“By 2050, there may be one billion electric vehicles (EVs) on the road worldwide, bringing opportunities—and challenges—for automakers and the supply chain. ” – Morgan Stanley Article

EVs will make a big impact but this writer believes they will be small compared to fully automated vehicles (AVs).   More on that in later.

EVs

Gas Stations will need to adapt as more and more cars don’t use gas.  Will we start to see it get harder to find a gas station?  That’s really hard to predict but certainly not for awhile.  Maybe in 10-20 years.

Car parts manufactures are likely to have big impacts.  For example, EV’s don’t need spark plugs, exhaust systems or air filters.  Battery, Electric Motor and Auto Automation (computers) are clear winners as EVs will shift heavily to these technologies.

AVs

What happens if EVs also include driverless systems?  I love driving but would be happy to enjoy the scenery or get some work done instead of sitting in a traffic jam (I’m located in Los Angeles). Suddenly the impacts affect lots of other things.  If Uber has it’s way they will replace lots of people making a living on driving with these cars.  Will it even make sense to own a car?  My research says that for many it will not.  As for me, I like using Uber and Lyft and if it became cheaper than owning a car I’m quite likely forgo car ownership.  That impacts insurance, parking lots, cities that rely on parking violations.  Auto manufactures in working hard on these technologies.  Ford, Tesla, and most of the others are working on this.

Totally driverless cars could be allowed on California roads by June 2018” – LA Times

If you think that will take many years you might be suppressed.  According to the LA Times there are almost 300 driverless cars in operation in California.  Cars are also operating in states with looser standards like Arizona and Florida.  That head line is a bit misleading as the driverless car is already here.  Just in limited numbers.  As a billion new EVs, according to Morgan Stanley, hit the road by 2050, we will see a lot of changes.  I’m guessing that many of the EVs sold in 5 years will also be AVs.

I think we will see changes no one can predict as EVs and AVs take over the roads.  Big job displacements similar to the introduction of automated factories and robotics are, in my opinion, going to take place.  EVs are “driving” the trend but AVs are actually more disruptive to how people lead their lives.   I just went with a Mustang Convertible because I live close to Pacific Coast Highway and I think it will be the last car I will ever drive.  But that’s to be seen.

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